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31 January 2007

Mobile phones in the developing world - Part II

Inspired by Jeph's entry on mobile phones and the developing world, I would like to provide some additional information on this topic. In Africa, 50% of telephone lines are in major cities and 90% of Africa’s overall telephone network is located in South Africa. Mobile phone penetration is now about 9% compared to an internet penetration of 2.6%. Morocco’s mobile phone penetration was 24 per 100 inhabitants in 2004, while fixed line penetration remained unchanged at its 1995 level (4 per 100 inhabitants). Indeed, Researchers of London Business School (Link to the study sponsored by Vodafone) found that, in a typical developing country, a rise of ten mobile phones per 100 people boosts GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points. Here is a link to a presentation by one of the researchers.
Average US landline/cell phone penetration is around 94% compared to an average internet penetration of 68% in the US. According to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) overall landline penetration in Europe was 56% and 88% of the population had mobile phones in 2004. Asian countries like Japan or Korea remain the leaders in 3G and are already working on the next version. All in all, mobile phones are much more pervasive and capable to bridge the digital divide (infrastructure, socia or income related).

Update: Here is a link to a related study in the McKinsey Quarterly that just came out.

Posted by Alexander Schellong at 5:31 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

29 January 2007

Mobile Phones in the Developing World

I always enjoy reading about how communication technologies are adopted in different counties. I recently read an article in the Washington Post about the use of mobile phones in the "developing world," which does a good job of mentioning the many social factors that explain why mobile phones are often heavily adopted in poor countries.

Of the many factors mentioned, I was most struck by the argument that that people in poor countries may find mobile phone email particularly useful because it is extremely low cost and non-intrusive. These are the same two factors that helped kick-start the now highly prevalent use of mobile phone email in Japan. Japanese teens were the first in Japan to use mobile phone email, because it was cheep enough for them to use often and because its non-intrusive nature allowed them to stay connected without drawing attention from parents and teachers. Of course, there also many differences between the uses of mobile phone email among Japanese teens and those in poor countries. Many Japanese teens received phones from their parents, while people in poor countries often adopt them for business purposes. Nevertheless, the interesting thing about these two cases is that it was the congruency between the affordances of the technology and the social situations that ultimately lead to its integration into everyday life.

Posted by Jeff Boase at 1:17 AM | Comments (0)

22 January 2007

Why do user communities work?

Newschoolers.com, skibuilders.com, or the Skiers Union are online communities of freestyle ski enthusiasts. In my research, I attempt to address the question why and how such online communities or online social networks work.

More precisely, I examine an important aspect of user communities – that is its members’ involvement in information sharing activities. I draw on previous research in the field of information sharing in social networks and I take a closer look at the following research question: "Why are some community members more actively sharing information than others?".

I build hypotheses and test them with data from a survey instrument, which I administered in the newschoolers.com community. I find that members with higher social status are more actively sharing community-relevant information than others. I also find that status is the result of a member’s embeddedness in and his experience with the user community.

In summary, my results contribute to the literature on user communities by illuminating the individual level determinants of voluntary information exchange. I also discuss the implications for further research in this field.

A working paper version of this paper is available upon request from the author of this blog entry.

Posted by Thomas Langenberg at 3:00 AM | Comments (1)

20 January 2007

Government Social Software - SNS in Japan Part III: Some observations

In today's entry I would like to make some comments on the two Japanes local government SNS case studies (Yatsushiro / Nagaoka) I presented earlier.

Mr. Kobayashi, the member of Yatsushiro's IT department, has a key role for the future development and functionalities of the SNS platform. He started this local SNS completely on his own, inspired by the rise of private social networking platforms and personal interest in technology. His government membership and high level of personal involvement ensure the sustainability of “Gorotto Yatchiro”. By comparison, “Ococo Nagaoka” is managed by an actor outside of government. The NPO, although well connected, has less leverage on the level government support and involvement. Government officials reportedly evaluate success by the quantity of users which influences their willingness of support. Therefore, "Ococo Nagaoka" is in a critical state (only 600-700 users).

Many online activities (i.e. exchanges) are depending on a critical mass for others to be attractive, a criteria which has not been met in both cases (1%< of the total population) and both mostly exclude older generations. In addition, both are competing with big platforms like Mixi.

If the local SNS has more users, the load on technology and burden on involved managers will also grow. Mr. Kobayashi would not be able to monitor user behavior without further help if that happens. Although officials claim to learn something from citizens, there is nobody checking the information in the citizens' blogs.
Mr. Kobayashi is right when pointing to the importance taking a gradual approach of getting more users and introducing the platform. However, government marketing is not helping much and poorly done which reminded me of discussions with administrators who were wondering about the slow user uptake in their eGovernment projects.

Although Mr. Kobayashi added the map feature, functionality and design of existing platforms led to an early framing of his understanding of the possibilities and limits of local SNS. The lack of feedback by other people in the creation process is certainly a reason why its use in disaster or the government citizen relationship is not fully exploited. Administrative members would also be more willing to join, add content and engage with the citizen if there would be a considerable and visible amount of support by executive level administrators. Again, Mixi and Gree formed their perception of SNS so that in their words local SNS is mainly a way to interact with the public and offer it a way to interact with each other. They miss the aspect of building social capital.

Moreover, MIC should have planned a longer pilot phase since the tendency of a slow user uptake was already visible in the data for Yatsushiro. Central government is still influential in Japan so MIC could have also done more to inform and motivate the public and administrators alike.

Posted by Alexander Schellong at 12:10 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

19 January 2007

How can Scaling Laws become Actionable?

It is becoming increasingly difficult to get excited about yet another discovery of a universal scaling law...

I can see the appeal of 'pure' science to expand the boundaries of human knowledge; however, an equally noble goal is to tackle real problems facing humanity. While discovering that systems can be described as straight lines in log-log plots will always have it's place in the literature, there seems to be a scarcity of papers that actually apply these insights to real problems.

As an engineer, I'd like to understand if scaling laws can help better inform the design of systems. Are there any case studies where discoveries such as power-law scaling in nature have been acted upon in a way that has actually helped people? (Perhaps the hub models to understand disease dissemination may qualify?)

Posted by Nathan Eagle at 2:08 AM | Comments (1)

18 January 2007

Digital Life and Design Conference 2007

The DLD conference which will take place from Jan 21st-23rd will be covering digital innovation, gaming, arts and science from the perspective of Europe, the Middle-East, America and Asia. There will also be a panel with representatives from asmallworld, xing and facbook covering social networks. The topics include the concept, success stories, and future prospects of social networks. The panel tries to answer questions such as: How does life change through social networks. What is their impact on society. How relevant are social networks to people's lives. How will traditional entertainment and media companies interact? More on that next week.

Posted by Alexander Schellong at 11:30 AM | Comments (0)

17 January 2007

New PEW Study on Online Social Networking Websites and Youth

The PEW Internet & American Life Project has just published a new study on Online Social Networking Websites and Youth.

They define online social networking websites as:

A social networking site is an online place where a user can create a profile and build a personal network that connects him or her to other users.

One of the main and interesting findings is that 55% of the teens between 12-17 are using social networking platforms to connect with their friends online - girls mainly to reinforce existing relationships and boys more to connect to new friends or dating purposes. The findings also show, that 82% of the respondents said, that they are using online social networking sites to stay in contact with friends who they rarely see.

This supports the theory in our working paper on the sustainability of online ties, that social networking platforms can support the maintenance of existing ties or to reconnect with former friends. See my earlier entry on the sustainability of online ties here on the IQ blog and also on my social networking blog.

Posted by Ines Mergel at 5:45 PM | Comments (1)

Networks of meaning

The winning “gadget” in google’s gadget contest is “Mapmyworddictionary” which draws a graph of a given word to set of other words with which it has some relationship (synonym, antonym, etc). You can then click on those words to see how they are connected to other words. Below is an example where I typed the word “network” into the dictionary. Rather neat.

Posted by David Lazer at 12:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

15 January 2007

Lacking ideas for outsourcing? Ask the citizen.

Saga Prefecture is located on the southern Japanese island of Kyushu. Facing a budget crisis Mr. Furukawa, the newly elected governor, started one of Japan's most ambitious reform programs in 2003. It included yearly budget cuts of 15% while at the same time allowing allowing granting departments more flexibility, an organizational redesign and cultural change towards citizen centricity. One of the latest innovative measures was the release of a list with 236 government areas/ processes in October 2006. The public was then asked for outsourcing/public private partnership proposals. Anyone was welcome to participate.

Hiroichi Kawashima, Saga's CIO, and his team worked together with all departments to identify the outsourcing "candidates". Their final list consisted of 236 areas/processes but the public was also allowed to make suggestions for the remaining 1791 areas/processes. The submission deadline ended in November 2006. Surprisingly, only 1/5 of proposals are directed at the 236 areas/processes identified by public servants. The team is currently reviewing the 361 proposals from individuals, NGO's and non recognized organizations. Thereafter, the will announce which proposals have been accepted and will do a public tender. They are also discussing of doing a second round of proposal submissions.

I think this is a very unique way for governments to tap into the creativity and resources of their citizens. I will keep you posted about further developments.

Posted by Alexander Schellong at 12:32 AM | Comments (0)

13 January 2007

cRANKy.com - first age-relevant search engine/social networking plattform

I just discovered the first age-relevant search engine - slash social networking plattform: cRANKy.com. It is targeted towards +50 year olds (seniors and baby boomers). They intend to provide information on specific topics such as jobs after retirement, how to become 100 years old, how to make new friends, etc.

I like the “How to make friends” section - which ties into what Thomas and I are working on: people in specific phases of their lifes are only adding specific types of (new) contacts to their network of friends. Especially when you retire - you won’t see your co-workers on a daily basis anymore, your routines are changing and you might loose some of your contacts. See my earlier post on the sustainability of online ties.

It’s also great, that the most relevant topics are pre-sorted by relevance (to avoid being overwhelmed by too many results), there are some prominent buttons to increase the text size and you can top 10 yourself, so that information can be pushed at you.

Posted by Ines Mergel at 12:21 PM | Comments (0)

12 January 2007

To counter insurgency - try to understand your enemies social networks first

Of course this is not the only thing those on the ground and in HQ should consider. Know the people, the topography, economy, history, religion and culture. Know every village, road, field, population group, tribal leader, and ancient grievance says David Kilcullen, an Australian Army officer. For decades, the Pentagon and social sciences have had little to do with each other. This was different in World War II and is changing given the difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan. More on that in an article by Packer (2005) in the New Yorker (12/18). In fact, network analysis was also used in the pursuit for Saddam Hussein, the former Iraqi President. A paper by Aylwin-Foster (2005) and the US Army field manual (FMI 3-07.22) give further insights into strategies and practices of counter-insurgency operations.

Other aspects of dark networks were presented in an earlier post this blog. With regard to Afghanistan, military planners might find work done by the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit of interest. Here is a link to one of their case studies about Afghani social networks in Peshawar, the Pakistani border region with its key trade route (Khyber Pass) to Afghanistan. You can also listen to a program (Taliban Sympathizers Take Refuge in Pakistan) on NPR by Kelly (2006/12/1). Finally, additional insights can surely be derived from Monsutti's (2005) book, War and Migration:Social Networks and Economic Strategies of the Hazaras of Afghanistan .

Posted by Alexander Schellong at 10:47 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

11 January 2007

Germany announces 311 solution: 115 Behoerdennotruf

Citizen Relationship Management - at least the contact center aspect of it, has made its way to Europe. The other day I have been in touch with somebody from Sweden which is looking into the matter. Dutch ministries also showed some interest. Apparently, the same is true for Germany. Shortly before christmas Angela Merkel, the German chancelor, announced the "Behoerdennotruf" (could be translated public agency emergency number) while participating in the "1st National IT Summit" between government and IT industry representatives. The N-11 type contact center would be available through the unified number 115 and available 24/7/365, probably realized by 2009/10. It is supposed to be modelled after New York's 311 solution. The results of a first survey among citizens showed mixed to negative opinions towards the initative. I think the term coined for the initiative is misleading for many people after reviewing some of the discussions on blogs and boards.

A feasibility study is planned to start in March 2007 by the ISPRAT institute, a collaboration between industry and academia (Hertie School of Governance, Frauenhofer, WHU). The institute was founded by Harald Lemke, CIO of the Germany's federal state Hesse. Industry members include Cisco Systems, CSC, Deutsche Telekom AG, Fujitsu-Siemens-Computer, HP, IBM, McKinsey & Company, Microsoft and SAP. You can find the research proposal here (Unfortunately in German only).

Posted by Alexander Schellong at 12:00 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

10 January 2007

Market Analysis on Social Network Analysis Books

Together with my co-author Dr. Marina Hennig from the Humboldt-University of Berlin, I conducted a market analysis of the main social network analysis books. We included English and German books. The results are written up in two working papers, published in German and English, in our Working Paper Series.

Here is a short abstract:

We conducted a market analysis of existing books on social network analysis as a basis for a grant proposal submitted to the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft - DFG) in November 2006. The results of this analysis are included in this working paper format and open for discussion. We are eager to learn about alternative interpretation(s) or analysis dimensions and will be (are) happy to update this paper as soon as we receive valid comments or requests for changes.

We appreciate any kinds of comments, additions, opinions on our analysis. We appreciate any kinds of comments, additions, opinions on our analysis. Please contact Ines Mergel if you would like to use our Endnote file.

Posted by Ines Mergel at 12:00 AM | Comments (2)

8 January 2007

Government Social Software - SNS in Japan Part II: Nagaoka City

The following describes my findings from Nagaoka city. Follow the highlighted area to read the first part about on government social software in Yatsushiro.

Nagaoka is a city located in the center of Niigata prefecture spanning from the northern coast inland of Japan’s main island Honshu. Just like Yatsushiro, Nagaoka merged with a couple of surrounding cities and towns between April 2005 and January 2006 increasing its population by approximately 100.000. Nagaoka was completely destroyed during Second World War and always had to cope with some form of disaster (earthquakes, snow, flood). This fact left its distinctive mark on the now roughly 283.000 people living in Nagaoka and is a reason why the Phoenix was chosen as a symbol of the city. The recovery of the Chuuetsu earthquake (More on the geophysics) in October 2004 is still taking place in some mountainous areas. The community is said to be better connected in those rural areas than in the city. According to city officials internet penetration is now at 60%. During the earthquake the internet and basic mobile messaging were the only communication channels working.

Before Nagaoka introduced the local SNS platform, it had a web bulletin board besides its official city website. Citizens showed the same frustration with the language and inappropriate behavior of some users which led many to abandon the platform. The city’s local SNS called “Ococo Nagaoka” was introduced in mid December 2005. As it is based on “Open Gorotto” I will not go into detail about its functionality. By now (December 2006) there are 600 registered users compared to 300 at the end of the MIC test phase in February. Only a few forums around casual topics like food eco-tourism can be considered active. The local SNS was marketed through publications in city newspapers, banners and section on the city website. In contrast, Mixi has 2000 members just for Nagaoka.

The process that ultimately led to the Nagaoka local SNS started in 2004. Soiga, an NPO, originally founded for environmental activities in April 2004 used a blogs and RSS to inform the public when the region first experienced a severe flood in April and earthquake in October. They provided faster information than government which received wide media attention, especially when they took over communication after Nakanashima government was operational ineffective through flooding. The NPO tried to convince government officials later that year to start an official government blog but their idea was rejected because nobody saw any need or importance in it. Thereafter, the head of the NPO was asked by MIC to join a newly formed working group on local SNS. (Furthere information in Japanese) The group consisted of academics, members from MIC and members of local administrators among them Mr. Kobayashi. They formed two groups to cover the theoretical and implementation/system aspects. First, they all looked at Mixi and Gree as the majority of them had never heard of SNS or used it before. To get the funds, the official project goal was officially about improving civic participation in Nagaoka and Tokyo’s Chiyoda Ward. Although they could not think of a different kind of use, improved information sharing in disasters was a secondary object. MIC covered the costs (¥ 1,500.000) for the local SNS pilot phase whereas the NPO was asked to manage it and work together with local government. Running costs are at around ¥ 30,000 per month.

When Nagaoka’s local SNS started, many sections except for information policy did not understand the SNS concept and why Nagaoka was chosen. In fact, of those interviewed, many admit that they are still wondering what SNS is all about, why they should put their information online and how it could be further utilized for government. Many immediately joined Mixi to get a feeling for SNS. Perceptions of local SNS vary. The dominating view is that local SNS provides a convenient location for communication and information sharing for citizens and government. In the past neighbourhood associations (NA) were the link between government and citizens. However, most leaders and people in the NA are now very old and lack knowledge or interest in the use of IT. Some interviewees think it could complete or add value to real-life relationships. People could help each other more by learning more about each other, what they could do for the community and as a result rely less on government. One mentions a group that started discussing how to have a nicer city and improve economic growth which members first got to each other through the local and later offline. A member of the disaster section adds that it is strengthening the community by building broad networks between the newly merged cities. Sceptics think that there are more dominating means of communication like mobile phones. A council member who uses multiple blogs and the SNS, thinks that the level of impact on the community of the local SNS is very low. To stress this point he compares his networks on Mixi (112 contacts) and the local SNS (12 contacts). In general though, SNS helped the council member to interact with the younger community.

Currently the members of Soiga (Japanese only) are working on an updated version which should be online by early 2007. The biggest change lies in the use of the Google Maps API. They are as well talking about online advertisement space and how to attract more users to the platform. Significant changes to “Open Gorotto” can only be introduced if they are implemented by Mr. Kobayashi or someone with his skills.

Posted by Alexander Schellong at 12:02 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

4 January 2007

Call for Papers: 6th international EGOV conference 2007

Regensburg, September 3 - 7, 2007

Submission Deadline: February 15, 2007

The annual EGOV conferences bring together leading researchers and professionals from all over the globe and from many disciplines. Over the years, the interest has increased tremendously. The 2006 conference attracted about 130 participants from 28 countries all over the world including developing countries, with 30 contributions in outstanding research, 30 contributions in ongoing research, 15 projects contributions and 5 workshops. Hence the EGOV Conferences have become a reunion for academics and professionals as well as an important ground for networking.

General information for the EGOV conference can be found at egov-society.org; Info on the location and for further conferences at the DEXA conference cluster.

List of topics includes the following...

- Strategies and frameworks, motivators, contextual biases
- eDemocracy and eParticipation challenges
- Assessment of eGovernment and eParticipation
- eGovernment and development (ICT4D)
- eGovernment research
- Training courses and teaching eGovernment
- Conceptual design and frames
- Implementation aspects
- mGovernment and emerging technologies for eGovernment and eParticipation

Further deadlines:
Submission of workshop/panel proposals:
April 15, 2007 (to be sent to the organising committee via email)

Submissions to PhD colloquium:
April 15, 2007 (to be sent to the organising committee via email)

Notification of acceptance for papers:
April 1, 2007

Notification of acceptance for workshops/panels/PhD submissions:
May 15, 2007

Camera-ready copies due:
Papers in LNCS proceedings: May 31, 2007

Papers in Trauner Druck proceedings: June 15, 2007

Posted by Alexander Schellong at 12:31 PM | Comments (0)

3 January 2007

More on demographics, networks, and electoral politics

A follow up on my earlier posting regarding demographics, social networks, and electoral politics. The census bureau just released numbers on population changes since 2000. Quoting from “The Fix” (http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/), there is clearly a shift toward Republican-leaning states:

“The ten states with the highest percentage population growth between July 1, 2005 and July 1, 2006 -- Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Georgia, Texas, Utah, North Carolina, Colorado, Florida and South Carolina -- were carried by President George W. Bush in 2004.

Regionally, too, the highest population growth is in areas that are Republican-red. The states comprising the South gained 1.5 million people over the past year, and the region now accounts for 36 percent of the national population. The West picked up more than 1 million people in the same period and now makes up 23 percent of the population; the Midwest gained 281,000 people and represents 22 percent of the nation's population total. The Northeast, which produced Democratic gains in the House and Senate in 2006, added just 62,000 people and is now the smallest region of the country with 18 percent of the population.”

Whether this benefits Republicans is an open question. Assuming most of these changes are due to migration (within the US, and from other countries to the US), as discussed in my earlier posting, it depends on how the migrants act politically—do they adapt to their new environs, or do their new environs adapt to them? In the short run it helps the Democrats if Democrats move to Republican leaning states and continue acting like Democrats. Four or five of those states are potentially competitive in 2008, and a 100,000 votes here or there could easily tilt a state into the Democratic column. This also means that Democratic states in 2008 have slightly (2-3) more electoral votes than they would deserve based on their population, and similarly, that Republicans areas are currently slightly under-represented in the House (lest you worry, the electoral system currently has a number of other biases in favor of Republicans that easily counterbalance these demographic shifts). The recalibration of the House and electoral college after the 2010 census will certain benefit the Republicans, but it is an illusory shift, largely reflecting a shuffling of people toward Republican states, not a shifting of voters toward the Republican party.

Posted by David Lazer at 10:32 PM | Comments (0)

2 January 2007

Happy new year: The (macro) systemic consequences of our relational rituals

A follow up to my last posting: As I watched a stomach bug pass from my sister in law’s family to mine this holiday (and, perhaps, unknowingly, from us to others) I pondered (among other things) the systemic consequences of these relational rituals. Extended families are increasingly spatially dispersed, or, put another way, family boundaries are increasingly likely to cross-cut geographic boundaries. A possible consequence of this is that those times when families get together (e.g., over the holidays) are actually a manifestation of those “long-distance” ties that (a la Watts and Strogatz) play a critical role in speeding diffusion in systems. I would note, though, that the process is not a purely network-structural one, because it is not just the network structure but the scheduling of communication within that structure that is important.

An interesting question (perhaps answered?) is whether holidays, in turn, accelerate the spread of pathogens through the population. For example, is there an accelerated inter-regional spread of contagious diseases in January in the US? More generally, what are the systemic consequences of system-wide “scheduling” of communication in this fashion (as compared to, for example, a less synchronized but equally frequent level of communication)?

Posted by David Lazer at 3:41 PM | Comments (0)