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Editor Login
Convener in chief:
David Lazer
(Methodology, Networked Governance)
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Maria Binz-Scharf
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Recent Comments
- Re: Iowa networks...
By: David Lazer
Date: Jan 3, 2008 8:37 PM - Re: Iowa networks...
By: Valdis Krebs
Date: Jan 3, 2008 11:56 AM
Notification
« Silicon valley networks | Main | Call for Papers: Conference at Harvard on Networks in Political Science, June 13-14 »
3 January 2008
Iowa networks...
Happy new year all! And for those political junkies out there, happy Iowa caucuses.
Has there been any work on the Iowa caucuses and social networks? There are a multitude of things one could study, notably around mobilization and caucusing choice. There has been more general work on networks and opinion (e.g., Huckfeldt, Sprague, etc), and networks and political mobilization (e.g., Nickerson).
Particularly interesting in 2008 is the contrast in mobilization strategy on the Republican side between Huckabee and Romney, where Romney has the traditional (well funded) mobilization machine, with phone calls, mass mailing, rides, etc; whereas Huckabee (out of necessity) is relying on informal evangelical networks to mobilize his supporters. Conventional wisdom is that the machine versus network match up will yield a several point edge to Romney.
---------------------
An interesting potential study: to examine the pre-caucus preferences (e.g., as measured by CNN entry poll) and post-caucus vote distribution.
Another potentially interesting study: examining the micro-level interactions within some of the caucuses.
In any case, if you know of relevant papers/research (or news about today's caucuses), please post as comment.
Posted by David Lazer at January 3, 2008 9:34 AM
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Comments
Yes, the network dynamics of caucuses are interesting.
Maybe Huckabee brings fewer people to the caucuses, via social networks, but maybe they are more dedicated to him, because they arrive because-of/with their social network?
As you know, people change their support at caucuses, sometimes under necessity[i.e. not enough support for their candidate] and sometimes under social pressure from their network(s). Might Romeny be attracting more isolates and disconnected pairs and trios [with the old "machine" that ignores connectivity] -- who may go with the prevailing winds once in the room?
Posted by: Valdis Krebs at January 3, 2008 11:56 AM
Interesting point-- and semi-testable, if we compare the CNN entrance polling to post caucus percentages, this would suggest that Romney and will underperform relative to Huckabee.
Btw, check out www.intrade.com for latest in the futures markets, which seem to predicting at this moment an Obama-Huckabee win.
Posted by: David Lazer at January 3, 2008 8:37 PM