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4 February 2008

The election comes to Massachusetts

A small but telling note about the "invisible" networks mobilizing around the primary-- a canvasser for Obama knocked on my door yesterday. A few observations: the canvasser was not someone i knew, but was from the neighborhood (4 or so blocks from my house); she had a checklist of doors to knock on; my town is not obviously promising Obama territory, where the median voter is probably about 50 and white; and, more generally, surveys have suggested that Clinton has the biggest lead in Massachusetts of any of the Super Tuesday states (see wonderful pollster.com graphic). There were no other canvassers that came to our door, and no others that I saw, generally, going door to door.

What does this tell us? It suggests that there is a formidable and sophisticated grassroots mobilization effort by the Obama campaign-- with primaries tomorrow covering a population of about 150 million people the Obama campaign had someone from my neighborhood knock on my door. The fact that it was someone local reflects the mobilization of local networks, the fact that she had a computerized print out of people to talk to suggests the sophisticated and centralized dimension of those efforts. Field studies suggest that these mobilization efforts can be very effective, and the effect must be amplified if it is someone from the neighborhood (as compared to outside canvassers). It also highlights the intensity of the Obama support, which is only partially reflected in voting (since the votes of high intensity people count no more than those of low intensity people, although presumably they are more likely to turn out), because intensity is related also to efforts to persuade. (My intuition therefore is that, at least in Massachusetts, polls are understating Obama's support-- although that intuition may wilt in about 28 hours.)

The other thing that this highlights is the role that elections play in spurring civic discussions. It is one of the curses of the electoral college system that the election does not come to states that are uncompetitive. It has been a long time since Republicans and Democrats fought over Massachusetts. There are votes (on the margin) to be fought over here, probably as many as in any state, but no electoral college votes to be won. As a result, the election settles with a vengeance in places like Ohio and Florida, but states like Massachusetts and Utah are utterly ignored. The Democratic and Republican primaries offer a nice contrast, where the Democratic delegates are awarded roughly proportional to the number of votes Clinton and Obama get in each Congressional district, whereas the Republican primary is winner take all. In part as a result there is vastly more competition for votes on the Democratic side than the Republican side, because McCain cannot hope to win delegates here, and Obama can.

Once tomorrow is past, the election is pretty much over for Massachusetts, except for commercials aimed at New Hampshire this Fall (since New Hampshire will be a competitive state). And I think that is unfortunate, because these kind of election-spurred discussions are healthy for our democracy.

Posted by David Lazer at February 4, 2008 2:10 PM

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