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February 19, 2007

The scaling laws of human travel

A friend of mine recently pointed me to this fun Nature paper entitled "The scaling laws of human travel". Essentially, these guys took the Where's George? dataset and successfully characterized the movement of $1 bills across the United States.

For those not familiar with the Where's George project, the idea is to record the unique identifier of US dollar bills and stamp them all with the "WheresGeorge.com" logo. The project has set up a web site where people who find a Where's George bill log in and record the bill's unique identifier and the place they found it. There are millions of bills currently circulating freely across the US and beyond. (I saw a $1 bill stamped with "Where's George" in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia last fall!)

While it's an interesting standalone website, the subsequent data generated from this project seems to provide insight into the spatiotemporal dynamics of a (fairly) unbiased random sample of the US population. The authors point out that the distribution of the distance travelled decays as a power-law and show the trajectories of individual bills can be fit well using a two parameter variation of a continuous-time random walk (CTRW).

Although I would have liked the authors to discuss the implications associated with human traveled being governed by a CTRW rather than pure Levy flight dispersal (ie: so what?), their rigorous analysis of this dataset is a great example for other researchers with similar spatiotemporal data. The paper also is a good place to start when brainstorming about what other comparable datasets are out there that could help us get a better handle on the complex dynamics associated with the behavior of our society.

January 19, 2007

How can Scaling Laws become Actionable?

It is becoming increasingly difficult to get excited about yet another discovery of a universal scaling law...

I can see the appeal of 'pure' science to expand the boundaries of human knowledge; however, an equally noble goal is to tackle real problems facing humanity. While discovering that systems can be described as straight lines in log-log plots will always have it's place in the literature, there seems to be a scarcity of papers that actually apply these insights to real problems.

As an engineer, I'd like to understand if scaling laws can help better inform the design of systems. Are there any case studies where discoveries such as power-law scaling in nature have been acted upon in a way that has actually helped people? (Perhaps the hub models to understand disease dissemination may qualify?)

January 28, 2006

Barabasi on "The architecture of real networks: from the Web to social networks"

This event is the first this year of the Transatlantic Initiative on Complex Organizations and Networks (TAICON), which is co-chaired by Lars-Erik Cederman, of ETH-Zurich, and David Lazer, of Harvard. It will take place on January 30 at noon at the Swiss House for Advanced Research and Education (SHARE ), 420 Broadway in Cambridge.

"The architecture of real networks: from the Web to social networks"
Speaker: Albert-László Barabási

Abstract: Networks with complex topology describe systems as diverse as the society, cell, or the World Wide Web.

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December 22, 2005

Virtual Stock Markets - Proving the Powerlaw?

Social relations between individuals can be complex systems. How the structure of social networks impacts the behaviour of a system has been researched recently. These are i.e. power grids, neural networks, the World Wide Web or stock markets. Although different in the underlying interaction dynamics or micro-physics, all these networks have shown a tendency to self-organize in structures that share common features. In particular, the number of connections, for each element, or node, of the network follow a power law distribution. Networks that fulfill this property are referred to as scale-free (SF) networks M. Bartolozzi, D. B. Leinweber1, A. W. Thomas. (2005).

I would like to draw your attention to 2 projects which are using the power law in a direct and indirect way. First, there is the use of virtual stock markets to improve market research. Second, a recent project concerning blogs and virtual stock markets (VSMs) tries to proove the existence of powerlaw.

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