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27 September 2005

A nation of political voyeurs.

I was checking out some figures on the National Election Survey website and came across this one:

interest.nes.gif

Even as political participation declines, more of us are interested in the campaign (even in the off year).

This reminds me of the article "Consumer Demand for Election News: The Horserace Sells" by Shanto Iyengar, Helmut Norpoth, and Kyu S. Hahn in the Journal of Politics (Feb. 2004, 66:1). Here's the abstract

Reports on the state of the horserace and analysis of the candidates' strategies are pervasive themes in news coverage of campaigns. Various explanations have been suggested for the dominance of strategy-oriented over hard news. The most frequently identified factors are the length of the modern campaign, the built-in conflict between journalists and campaign operatives and the pressures of the marketplace. This paper provides a test of the market hypothesis. Given access to a wide variety of news reports about the presidential campaign the weeks immediately preceding the 2000 election, we find that voters were drawn to reports on the horserace and strategy. Strategy reports proved especially popular among readers with higher levels of political engagement. In closing, we consider what journalists might to make stories about the issues more relevant and marketable.

People want the horse race, and the media is giving it to them. But why doesn't interest translate into turnout?

An interesting comparison might be the number of people who call in and vote for a favorite contestant on a show like American Idol versus the Nielsen estimates of viewers. Watching a show signals interest and hosts of the show are constantly imploring viewers to vote, but only some do. What is the turnout like for these shows? The expected benefits are hard to quantify -- maybe you really enjoy watching contestant X each night in your living room. Also the costs are really low -- according to the show's web page, voting is as easy as a toll free phone call. Maybe the Carter-Baker panel should have looked into this. U.S. elections American Idol style? Would this give John Ashcroft an unfair advantage?

Posted by Andrew Reeves at September 27, 2005 6:26 PM

Comments

This is an absolutely fascinating graph that counters media and academic portrayals of a disengaging electorate. Checking the NES web site, I noticed that this dramatic rise in those who are "somewhat interested" comes at a slight expense from both the "very much interested" and "not much interested" categories. I don't think we yet know what is happening here.

Posted by: Barry Burden at October 3, 2005 11:51 AM