Political Behavior Blog

First, do electoral systems determine the number of parties? Following Duverger's logic, the answer had always been yes. But in a recent Political Studies article Josep Colomer argues instead that parties choose electoral systems, thus turning Duverger "upside down." Taking advantage of cases where a country changed its electoral system, Colomer finds that the adoption of proportional representation is as much the product of multipartyism as its cause.

Second, do tough primaries hurt candidates' general election chances? Although the literature has produced mixed findings, the evidence tilts in favor of the idea that divisiveness does cause nominees to do poorly in the fall election. Jeffrey Lazarus argues in a Legislative Studies Quarterly piece that in fact anticipation of general election outcomes causes primaries to be competitive, thus reversing the causal arrow. In particular, challengers are more likely to enter primaries when the incumbent appears vulnerable.

Although neither of these questions is entirely settled, both Colomer and Lazarus have managed to provoke researchers into challenging long-standing assumptions about what causes what. I argue that we ought to be doing more of this.