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27 February 2006

APRW: Burden & Hillygus on Biased Voter Learning

This week's American Politics Research Workshop (APRW) features a paper by me and Sunshine Hillygus titled "The Devil You Know: Voter Learning, Polarization, and George W. Bush's Reelection." Among other things, we show that no president should ever pledge to be "a uniter not a divider" as Bush did; public attitudes toward the president always polarize. Incumbency, polarization, and learning are natural consequences of a president's first term in office. The abstract says more:

Over the course of a president’s first term, the electorate acquires new information about the incumbent. This happens in two ways. First, among the uninformed, passive learning about the president and his policies typically improves his evaluations because it reduces uncertainty relative to the challenger. This contributes to a presidential incumbency advantage. Second, among those with some information and predispositions, active learning causes polarization of opinion. As a result, opinions toward the president almost always diverge during his first term in office, and this has been compounded by the secular rise in polarization in recent years. In light of this theory, George W. Bush’s reelection win was not that different than the reelection wins of other recent presidents. His presidency was unique, however, in that the learning process was accelerated by 9/11 and the Iraq war. Despite the initial unifying effect of 9/11 on opinions of Bush early in his presidency, evaluations of Bush polarized over these very issues of security and terrorism while contributing to his reelection.

Posted by Barry Burden at February 27, 2006 2:10 PM