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13 February 2006

(More on) predicting election outcomes

I've been interested for a while in how to try and predict the likely outcomes of this fall's midterms, as well as how best to predict elections in general. The Swing State Project just posted some information about how well "political experts" (including campaign consultants, political scientists, pundits and the like) predicted the 1994 midterm elections.

The answer? Not well... Few of the 21 experts predicted the GOP's victory that year - and no-one came close to predicting the extent of their takeover. As DavidNYC puts it,

Bottom line: Beware predictions, especially from high-profile experts. That's not to say we shouldn't try to make any - hell, that's half the purpose of the political blogosphere. It just means we all have to maintain a strong skepticism - and keep that salt handy.

Fair point, although presumably the advice applies equally to low-profile, non-experts. Feel free to refer me back to this post the next time I make a prediction!

Posted by Phil Jones at February 13, 2006 4:50 PM