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18 February 2006

Tolbert on Ballot Initiatives and the 2004 Elections

On Friday February 17th, the Political Psychology and Behavior Workshop sponsored Professor Caroline Tolbert’s talk, “Direct Democracy, Agendas, and Presidential Vote: Gay Marriage and the 2004 Election�. Prof. Tolbert, presenting her ongoing work with Professors Todd Donovan and Daniel Smith, offered compelling evidence that initiatives banning gay marriage on the ballot in thirteen states during the 2004 election had a strong influence on the voter’s calculus.

Using a unique data set, Prof. Tolbert argued that having a same-sex marriage ban on the ballot made voters who were concerned with gay marriage and a resident of a state with a ban of gay marriage on the ballot substantially more likely to vote for Bush than similar residents in states without these initiatives on the ballot. Prof. Tolbert’s analysis also suggested that these initiatives had substantial power in setting the agenda for an election. Counterintuitively, these effects are primarily concentrated among secular voters. Her paper and talk concluded with a conjecture that these ballot initiatives potentially represent a new electoral tool for campaigns and politicians.

The audience response to her presentation was largely positive. One issue addressed by several members of the audience, and a problem for political science more generally, is the selection of states used to test the effects of these ballot initiatives. Many studies attempt to exploit variation among the American states as an opportunity to discern how context influences individual level political behavior. Unfortunately, states are not randomly assigned to have ballot initiatives or other policies, and as a result it may be difficult to ascertain the extent to which the ballot initiatives were driving Prof. Tolbert’s results.

Posted by Justin Grimmer at February 18, 2006 10:04 AM