Social Science Statistics Blog

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4 October 2005

Applied Statistics - Andrew Thomas

This week’s Applied Statistics Workshop presentation will be given by Andrew Thomas of the Harvard Statistics Department. Drew’s talk, entitled “ A Comparison of Strategies in Ice Hockey,� considers the choices facing players and coaches during the course of a game. Should they prioritize possession of the puck, or its location on the rink? The paper presents a model that divides the play of the game into different states in order to estimate the probability of scoring or allowing goals conditional on a given starting state.

Drew is currently a second-year Ph.D. candidate in the Statistics Department, having graduated from MIT in 2004 with a degree in Physics. He has presented his work at the Joint Statistical Meetings and the New England Statistical Symposium. He was born and raised in Toronto, Ontario, which may have something to do with his interest in hockey. And, most importantly, he is a fellow blogger on the Social Science Statistics blog. The presentation will be at noon on Wednesday, October 5 (coincidentally enough, opening night for the NHL) in Room N354, CGIS North, 1737 Cambridge St. Lunch will be provided.

Posted by Mike Kellermann at 5:45 PM

"On The Fringe": The Probability of God, An Initial Look

Drew Thomas

Stephen D. Unwin made headlines - at least, in the Odds and Ends section – two years ago, with the publication of his book "The Probability of God". His idea was to determine, using some numerical method, whether conditions on earth would be enough to predict whether the Judeo-Christian construction of God does indeed exist.

Thankfully, the book is classified as humor. The actual problem being solved is somewhat irrelevant to the greater community, since matters of faith are conducted in the absence of fact. But this does represent the fringe of our discipline, and how numbers are perceived in the real world.

In this "real world," there are too many examples of numbers distorted for the sake of an agenda. For example, that 4 out 5 dentists choose a particular toothpaste to endorse tells us nothing about the sample size (or about a possible line of dentists they tossed beforehand). Sports statistics are mangled and mishandled all the time without a mention of sample size concerns or actual relevance. (The misuse of numbers in society is a favorite theme of mine; keep looking for it in my entries.)

At least Dr. Unwin has not only a clearly stated agenda behind his work, but also a clearly stated method and an acknowledgement of subjectivity. Unwin’s calculation puts the probability of God’s existence at 67%; Richard Dawkins, the famed atheist, used the same method and obtained a result of 2% -- about 2% higher than Dawkins would otherwise be willing to admit.

Most of this information came from a radio interview with the good Dr. Unwin. Stay tuned for the book review and a look at his technique.

Posted by James Greiner at 6:07 AM