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« More thoughts on publication bias and p-values | Main | An Individual-Level Story and Ecological Inference »
31 October 2006
Predicting Elections
Jacob Eisenstein at MIT has developed an smart election predictor for the US Senate Elections using a Kalman Filter. The filter helps to decide how much extra weight to attach to more recent polls. Check it out here; he also has some details on the method here.
Posted by Sebastian Bauhoff at October 31, 2006 2:01 PM
Comments
Tom Brunell and I have a similar Bayesian KF model to predict the aggregate seats in the House. See here for details
Posted by: Patrick Brandt at October 31, 2006 4:25 PM