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Notification
« Simpson’s Paradox | Main | Procrastination »
20 October 2006
Statistics and baseball
Mike Kellermann
With the World Series about to get underway, featuring the rubber match between the Detroit Tigers and the St. Louis Cardinals (Round 1 went to the Cardinals in 1934, Round 2 to the Tigers in 1968, but maybe this is a best of five and we won't see the end until 2076), it is worth reflecting on the influence baseball has had on statistics and vice versa. I mentioned Frederick Mosteller's analysis after the 1946 World Series in a previous post, but many statisticians share his interest in baseball. Dozens of baseball-related articles have appeared in statistical journals over the years, attempting to answer substantive questions ("Did Shoeless Joe Jackson throw the 1919 World Series?") or to motivate statistical techinques ("Parametric Empirical Bayes Inference: Theory and Applications", with application to Ty Cobb's batting average). Within political science, more than one methodologist has told me about the hours that they spent tracking batting averages and OBP's when they were growing up (OK, so it may have been cricket in a few cases). Going in the other direction, there is no question that the Moneyball approach to baseball has been enormously influential, even if the jury is still out about its implications for the post-season. As Harry Reasoner once said, "Statistics are to baseball what a flaky crust is to Mom's apple pie." To which I can only add, Go Tigers!
Posted by Mike Kellermann at October 20, 2006 1:40 PM
Comments
Statistics will undoubtedly play a role in analyzing
"dirt-gate" or the controversy surrounding the mysterious smudge on Kenny Rogers' pitching hand.
For background, Rogers has had an amazing post-season (23 scoreless innings), quite surprising for a hurler in the twilight of his career. Can Rogers amazing streak be explained by the mysterious smudge on his left hand?
One version of the conspiracy theory argues that it is easier for Rogers to cheat at home. So, if Rogers performs better in Comerica Park, than say US Cellular field, we have evidence that the brown streak on the left hand is giving "the gambler" an unfair advantage.
Of course, the fact that an athlete would perform better on his or her home field is not at all surprising. Disentangling home field advantage from the "dirt" on Rogers' left hand may become the new great puzzle for Baseball statisticians.
Just for the curious, Rogers actually got better after the umpires noticed the smudge and asked him to wash his hands. This provides some initial evidence that perhaps Rogers' postseason magic is less about an artificially superior grip and more about an athlete excelling under pressure.
Posted by: Justin Grimmer at October 24, 2006 1:52 AM