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« Meta-analysis: To Trust or Not to Trust | Main | Simpson’s Paradox »

18 October 2006

The probability of vanishing posts

There was for a while a post on this blog with comments about an article on deaths in the Iraq war. Despite many good points all parties had in this discussion, it was distracting some folks here from our mission to make the world safe for quantitative methodology. If you're interested in reading more about this subject, we recommend Andrew Gelman's blog post on this subject, which includes many of those who posted and commented here. Thanks for the original post and everyone who commented, and sorry for the confusion.

Posted by Gary King at October 18, 2006 4:20 PM

Comments

Posts of measure zero?

Posted by: Mike Anderson at October 18, 2006 4:43 PM

The original post still seems to be accessible from posts (on other blogs) that have already linked to it. Don't know if that's a concern.

Posted by: Matt Weiner at October 18, 2006 5:44 PM

I think probability of measure zero is now really zero, at least on this site.

Posted by: Gary King at October 18, 2006 6:42 PM

OK, but let's just be clear about what seems to be going on here. As far as I can tell there have been at least THREE separate posts by David Kane on the Lancet study on Iraq. Two of the posts were still up at the time that Gary King put up this announcement. By the end of the evening only "one post on this topic had been left up, the only post by Kane that did not seem to provoke commenters to question his methods or arguments.

So the probabiliy of vanishing posts has been established to be non-zero, but are we also beginning to discern somewhat of a pattern to the attrition bias?

Posted by: Jonathan at October 18, 2006 11:49 PM

Would you be kind enough to explain what you mean by "distracting some folks here from our mission to make the world safe for quantitative methodology". Surely these posts did discuss statistical methodology, even if mostly reminding your guest poster of his ignorance? Didn't someone mention libel? Was that the reason the posts vanished?

Posted by: Dave Weeden at October 19, 2006 4:01 AM

David Kane accused the authors of the study of fraud. His only evidence, of course, being that the numbers they got were far higher than they like. Now, in the world of propaganda, that's not only acceptable, but standard practice. However, in academia, one had best have proof. Therefore, his post was yanked.

Hopefully the people who run this program will reconsider the involvement of Mr. Kane with this program.

Posted by: Barry at October 19, 2006 8:10 AM

I'm very late to this, but I'm really surprised you removed the post. The fraud claim was unsupported. But was it so beyond the pale as to be censored? Statisticians must have very, very mild workshops ... hopefullly not because of an imperative not to offend.

Posted by: David Zaring at October 23, 2006 3:21 PM

The BBC has put up a quite constructive forum for debating the Lancet study's methodology, and what was wrong with it. It covers a lot of material that might have been constructively debated here, but wasn't:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6045112.stm

Posted by: Jonathan at October 25, 2006 12:57 AM

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