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Notification
« A born-again frequentist? | Main | Predicting Pennsylvania »
3 April 2008
Cost-effectiveness of anti-terrorist spending
The Economist recently had an interesting article on anti-terrorist
spending ("Feel safer now?", March-6 print edition). The piece reports
on research done by Todd Sandler and Daniel Arce on the costs and
benefits of different responses to terrorism (paper here). Terrorism creates a lot
of anxiety but (so the authors say) actually costs few lives and many
counter-measures might be ineffective, e.g. if terrorists just shift
attacks to easier targets in response. Sandler and Arce suggest most of
their spending scenarios are not cost-effective, but that political
cooperation could be worthwhile.
Not being an expert in this area, I suspect that the counterfactuals
involved must be extremely hard to defend given the scope of
transnational terrorism. Similarly the reported bounds are huge and the
underlying numbers should be up for debate. For example while skimming
through, I noticed that didn't see any accounting for psychological
stress of those not directly involved in an attack (e.g. the general
population), nor that of military personnel and families who implement
some of the counter-measures. Any views?
Posted by Sebastian Bauhoff at April 3, 2008 6:00 PM