Political Economy Workshop (Gov 3007)

Date: 

Monday, March 23, 2015, 12:00pm to 2:00pm

Location: 

K354
Presentations given by John Marshall and Martin Abel Abstract for "Information Acquisition, Local Media, And Electoral Accountability: When Do Mexican Voters Punish Incumbents For High Homicide Rates?" Little is known about how voter decisions to acquire political information affect demo- cratic accountability. Integrating models of supply of and demand for political infor- mation, I show that salient short-term performance indicators—such as recent local homicides—revealed just before an election can be major vote choice determinants. I argue that this is because voters with weak priors over candidate quality only face social signaling incentives to acquire information around elections. I test the model’s predictions using fine-grained data and a variety of identification strategies in Mex- ico. I find that voters indeed acquire more information, are more politically engaged just prior to local elections, and also care more about public security when the pre- election period coincides with local homicides. Consistent with the signaling model, information acquisition is greatest among those in politically-oriented networks, and elections ratchet up acquisition across the population. I then demonstrate that pre- election homicide shocks substantially decrease the incumbent party’s vote share and re-election probability, but only in the presence of local broadcast media stations. Con- versely, longer-term homicide rates barely affect incumbent electoral performance. These findings suggest that the timing of their information acquisition causes voters over-weight short-term performance indicators revealed when they are most politically engaged, and may consequently elect lower-quality representatives. Abstract for "Long-run Effects of Forced Coexistence under Apartheid on Social Capital" Abstract In an attempt to divide and marginalize the black opposition, the apartheid regime forcefully relocated some 3.5 million South Africans to rural homelands between 1960 and 1980. This event, considered one of history's largest social engineering exercises, created overcrowded and economically deprived communities of displaced people. This paper uses geo-coded data to explore the long-term effects of removals on current measures of social capital such as trust towards other members of the community. Comparing people within the same former homeland, I show that those living close to former resettlement camps have higher levels of trust towards members of their social network and people in general. They are also more trusting towards members of both their own and other ethnic groups. This effect is larger for people born after 1975 who did not witness the forced removals, which suggests that events had long-term effects on social capital. This is also reflected by lower crime rates in these communities. Exploring causal mechanisms, I document that resettlement camp areas are more ethnically diverse and that diversity is positively correlated with measures of social capital only in areas affected by relocation. Interacting with people from different backgrounds and adopting a shared identity as displaced people may explain why relocation communities have higher levels of social capital despite potential short-term conflict over resources.