Michael Gill & Arthur Spirling Evaluate the 2010 WikiLeaks Cable Disclosure

April 24, 2015
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Michael Gill and Arthur Spirling have recently published the first systematic estimate of the severity of the 2010 WikiLeaks US diplomatic cable disclosure.

In "Estimating the Severity of the WikiLeaks U.S. Diplomatic Cables Disclosure," Gill and Spirling examine the November 2010 release of more than 250,000 diplomatic cables between US embassies and the US State Department. The authors assess the leak's severity by considering its size relative to that of all diplomatic cables in existence at the time. Using statistical methods, Gill and Spirling find that (then) Private Manning leaked around 5% of all cables sent between 2005 and 2010. Their article appears in Political Analysis, and it can be accessed through the Political Analysis website.

Michael Gill is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Government at Harvard. Arthur Spirling is the John L. Loeb Associate Professor of the Social Sciences in the Department of Government, as well as Director of the Program on Text Research at IQSS.