#  Clemence Tricaud (Alesina Seminar) 

 



####  calendar\_today Date and Time 

 **October 30, 2025** 

 04:30PM - 05:45PM EDT 

####  pin\_drop Location 

 **CGIS Knafel room K354**  



 

 



 

## Speaker & Title

Clemence Tricaud (UCLA), "Electoral Margins and Political Competition"

## Abstract

Are US election outcomes historically close? This paper analyzes long-run trends in election vote margins and party seat margins and links them to changes in the nature of political competition. We assemble a comprehensive database of historical electoral results for the US House, Senate and presidential contests, from the 19th century until today. Seat margins declined in the recent period, so the margins of control of the House, Senate, and Electoral College by either party have become smaller. However, this was not accompanied by a decline in the margins of victory at the constituency level. We interpret these facts in the context of a simple model of electoral competition with multiple districts. We show theoretically that the increase in politicians’ information about voter preferences, together with the growing nationalization of politics, can explain the decrease in seat margins and the concurrent stability in vote margins. As implied by the model, we document that campaign contributions received by House candidates are increasingly concentrated in a dwindling set of swing districts.



 

Co-sponsored by FAS and IQSS, the Alberto Alesina Seminar on Political Economy supports research-related activities that integrate the study of economics and politics, whether by studying economic behavior in the political process or political behavior in the marketplace. In general, positive political economy is concerned with showing how observed differences among institutions affect political and economic outcomes in various social, economic, and political systems and how the institutions themselves change and develop in response to individual and collective beliefs, preferences, and strategies.

All interested faculty and students are invited to attend.



 

 



 [ draftsSubscribe to the Alesina Seminar mailing list](https://lists.iq.harvard.edu/mailman/listinfo/ppe_list) [  arrow\_forward  Alesina Seminar page ](https://www.iq.harvard.edu/program-political-economy) 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 See also:- [ Alesina Seminar on Political Economy ](/program/seminar-political-economy)
 
 

 Share on:- [     Facebook ](#)
- [     Twitter ](#)
- [     Linkedin ](#)
 


 Save: [ Add to calendar calendar\_today ](https://www.iq.harvard.edu/node/1955236/event-feed.ics)  Copy link link