Vincent Pons (Alesina Political Economy Seminar)

Date: 

Thursday, November 11, 2021, 4:30pm to 5:45pm

Location: 

CGIS Knafel, room K354

Vincent Pons, (Harvard Business School), "Electoral Turnovers and Country Performance: Evidence from 2,500 National Elections"

Abstract

Does the outcome of national elections affect the performance of countries? In most national elections, voters face a key choice between supporting the incumbent and requesting a change in leadership. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent fails to win reelection. To understand how electoral turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of national elections held worldwide after 1945. We document the prevalence of electoral turnovers across countries and over time and we estimate their effects on economic performance, trade, human development, conflict, and democracy. Using a close election regression discontinuity design (RDD) across countries, we show that electoral turnovers improve performance along multiple dimensions. These effects do not seem driven by term limits, differences in the characteristics of challengers, or differences in the policies they implement in terms of government intervention in the economy. But electing new leaders improves institutional quality and reduces corruption, consistent with the expectation that leaders in their first term put more effort due to stronger reputation concerns.

Co-sponsored by FAS and IQSS, the Alberto Alesina Seminar on Political Economy supports research-related activities that integrate the study of economics and politics, whether by studying economic behavior in the political process or political behavior in the marketplace. In general, positive political economy is concerned with showing how observed differences among institutions affect political and economic outcomes in various social, economic, and political systems and how the institutions themselves change and develop in response to individual and collective beliefs, preferences, and strategies.

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All interested faculty and students are invited to attend.