#  Melody Huang (Applied Stats Workshop) 

 



####  calendar\_today Date and Time 

 **March 4, 2026** 

 12:00PM - 01:30PM EST 

####  pin\_drop Location 

 **CGIS Knafel Building, Room K354**  



 

 [ Join via Zoom arrow\_circle\_right ](https://harvard.zoom.us/j/93110218231?pwd=Gmka2cTdUty8AcWec90hWmcSllXtkP.1) 

 



 

### Speaker & Title

Melody Huang, "Relative Bias Under Imperfect Identification in Observational Causal Inference"

### Abstract

To conduct causal inference in observational settings, researchers must rely on certain identifying assumptions. In practice, these assumptions are unlikely to hold exactly. This paper considers the bias of selection-on-observables, instrumental variables, and proximal inference estimates under violations of their identifying assumptions. We develop bias expressions for IV and proximal inference that show how violations of their respective assumptions are amplified by any unmeasured confounding in the outcome variable. We propose a set of sensitivity tools that quantify the sensitivity of different identification strategies, and an augmented bias contour plot visualizes the relationship between these strategies. We argue that the act of choosing an identification strategy implicitly expresses a belief about the degree of violations that must be present in alternative identification strategies. Even when researchers intend to conduct an IV or proximal analysis, a sensitivity analysis comparing different identification strategies can help to better understand the implications of each set of assumptions. Throughout, we compare the different approaches on a re-analysis of the impact of state surveillance on the incidence of protest in Communist Poland.



 

The Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) meets all academic year on Wednesdays. This workshop is a forum for advanced graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss methodological or empirical work in progress in an interdisciplinary setting. The workshop features a tour of Harvard's statistical innovations and applications with weekly stops in different fields and disciplines and includes occasional presentations by invited speakers.  
  
All interested Harvard affiliates are invited to attend. Lunch will be provided.



 

 



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