# CCES Shares Results of 2016 Pre-Election Survey November 07, 2016 ![cces logo](/sites/g/files/omnuum8171/files/styles/hwp_16_9__480x270/public/harvard-iqss/files/cces_logo_alt1-extended.png?itok=I-7ugkoY) (Press release originally posted on the CCES Website.) FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE One of the largest pre-election surveys of the American electorate shows Hillary Clinton holding a 4 percentage point lead over Donald Trump. Among people who said they already voted early or absentee, her lead is 13 points. The Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) interviewed 117,316 respondents across all 50 states from October 4th to November 6th. The sample was then pared down to 84,292 likely voters. Nationally, 43 percent of survey respondents chose Hillary Clinton and 39 percent chose Donald Trump for President. The remaining 18 percent either were undecided or chose Libertarian Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, or another candidate. The survey was also designed to have representative samples in each state. In Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Trump and Clinton are separated by 3 points or less. Statistically speaking, we cannot be confident of either candidate’s lead in these states. In the remaining battleground states, Clinton appears to have the edge. Trump holds leads in Arizona and Georgia. Clinton holds leads in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. States in which Trump has a clear lead have total electoral votes of 188. States in which Clinton has a clear lead have total electoral votes of 253. There are 97 electoral votes in states and districts where the races are statistically too close to call. “The race could go either way. Hillary Clinton has a definite lead nationwide, but the race is very close in many of the battleground states. Clinton really needs to win Pennsylvania, and Florida is critical to Trump’s path to victory,” according to Professor Stephen Ansolabehere of Harvard University and the Principal Investigator of the study. Brian Schaffner of the University of Massachusetts Amherst and co-Principal Investigator of the CCES described the study as “one of the most coherent pictures available of the 2016 race. It’s clear that Clinton is ahead, but not by enough for her to feel fully confident going into Tuesday’s election, especially with a significant share of undecided voters still out there.” The Cooperative Congressional Election Study was conducted online by YouGov from October 4th to November 6th. Registered voters were raked to age by gender, race by education, age by 2012 Presidential vote, gender by 2012 vote, race by 2012 vote, education by 2012 vote, and state by 2012 vote. Unregistered voters were raked to age by gender, race by education, state by 2012 turnout, and state by white/nonwhite. Targets were obtained by imputing the 2012 CPS voting and registration supplement and 2012 NEP Exit Poll to the 2012 American Community Study and applying Census life tables to adjust for mortality. Current education was imputed using a logistic regression. The Likely voter weight was obtained by multiplying the registered voter weight by the probability of voting (1 for those who have already voted, 0.9 for those “definitely voting”, 0.3 for those “probably voting”, and 0.1 for those not sure). The CCES survey has been conducted every year since 2005. Details about past studies are available at . Sort State By State Results: Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, YouGov, National sample size = 84,292 Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Sample Size U. S. 42.9 39.0 4.7 0.9 84,292 Alabama 31.6 52.6 3.8 0.9 1,388 Alaska 37.4 37.7 12.0 1.0 201 Arizona 37.8 46.3 4.3 1.6 1,567 Arkansas 30.5 48.0 5.3 3.1 736 California 51.8 30.4 4.2 2.6 8,746 Colorado 42.1 36.9 6.1 2.3 1,556 Connecticut 46.6 35.8 4.6 1.4 955 Delaware 50.7 31.6 4.8 1.6 260 DC 79.8 6.8 2.2 1.2 190 Florida 44.0 42.9 2.9 1.6 5,371 Georgia 40.5 45.4 3.3 0.9 2,663 Hawaii 50.3 27.9 4.1 2.1 289 Idaho 25.3 44.8 6.5 1.1 416 Illinois 48.3 33.1 4.4 1.9 3,448 Indiana 36.6 43.8 5.8 1.2 1,742 Iowa 40.4 37.3 5.6 1.6 972 Kansas 31.6 47.5 8.1 1.0 776 Kentucky 32.2 52.2 3.6 1.7 1,229 Louisiana 35.9 47.3 5.2 1.5 1,355 Maine 38.7 34.0 8.5 3.8 437 Maryland 55.0 29.2 3.9 2.0 1,652 Massachusetts 51.3 28.6 4.9 2.5 1,963 Michigan 42.0 36.0 5.4 3.2 3.014 Minnesota 42.3 35.9 5.2 2.2 1,736 Mississippi 39.5 45.5 2.3 0.7 861 Missouri 35.8 43.3 5.4 2.6 1,814 Montana 31.7 44.1 6.7 3.1 307 Nebraska 32.3 44.9 6.5 1.9 506 Nevada 42.5 40.9 6.2 2.0 656 New Hampshire 43.0 34.4 5.9 3.0 430 New Jersey 47.7 35.7 3.4 1.9 2,377 New Mexico 41.7 34.6 11.4 2.6 508 New York 52.7 31.4 3.5 1.9 4,663 North Carolina 43.5 41.3 4.8 1.0 2,916 North Dakota 32.3 44.8 5.3 4.0 201 Ohio 43.2 41.5 4.4 1.7 3,455 Oklahoma 26.8 53.4 7.6 1.7 949 Oregon 43.8 36.0 5.4 2.8 1,112 Pennsylvania 42.7 41.2 3.8 1.9 3,704 Rhode Island 47.0 29.2 5.2 1.7 287 South Carolina 35.6 46.6 3.5 1.7 1,298 South Dakota 31.3 49.6 6.2 0.6 246 Tennessee 33.9 48.3 4.4 1.5 1,729 Texas 36.8 44.7 5.3 1.3 5,874 Utah 23.7 32.8 12.3 1.9 676 Vermont 40.5 24.5 3.4 5.0 191 Virginia 46.1 37.0 6.0 1.1 2,460 Washington 47.4 31.7 5.5 2.6 1,985 West Virginia 25.7 54.0 5.1 3.0 472 Wisconsin 42.2 37.7 4.6 2.6 1,794 Wyoming 26.2 59.0 6.3 1.8 151 --- *The Cooperative Congressional Election Study is an annual multi-institutional study, headed by Stephen Ansolabehere (Harvard Dept of Government) and Brian Schaffner (UMass Amherst), which involves a two-part national survey administered by a team at YouGov/Polimetrix led by Samantha Luks. More information about the Cooperative Congressional Election Study is available at the [CCES website](http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/cces/%E2%80%9D).* Share on:- [ Facebook ](#) - [ Twitter ](#) - [ Linkedin ](#)