Harvard Seminar on Positive Political Economy

Alice Hsiaw, Assistant Professor, Brandeis International Business School, will present:Distrust in Experts and the Origins of DisagreementIndividuals often must learn about a state of the world when both the state andthe credibility of information sources (experts) are uncertain. We argue that learningin these ‚Äúrank-deficient‚Äù environments may be subject to a bias that leads agents toover-infer expert quality. Agents who encounter information or experts in different orderdisagree about substance because they endogenously disagree about the credibilityof each others‚Äô experts, as first impressions about experts have long-lived influenceson beliefs about the state. This arises even though agents share common priors, information,and biases, providing a theory for the origins of disagreement. Our theoryhelps explain why disagreement about substance and expert credibility often go hand-in-handand is hard to resolve in a wide-range of issues where agents share commoninformation, including economics, climate change, and medicine.The latest paper is available herehttps://www.dropbox.com/s/h261ckp0m2oo4c7/chenghsiaw_disagreement.pdf?d…