Date:
Thursday, November 10, 2016, 4:30pm to 6:00pm
Location:
CGIS Knafel K354
Alice Hsiaw, Assistant Professor, Brandeis International Business School, will present:
Distrust in Experts and the Origins of Disagreement
Individuals often must learn about a state of the world when both the state and
the credibility of information sources (experts) are uncertain. We argue that learning
in these “rank-deficient” environments may be subject to a bias that leads agents to
over-infer expert quality. Agents who encounter information or experts in different order
disagree about substance because they endogenously disagree about the credibility
of each others’ experts, as first impressions about experts have long-lived influences
on beliefs about the state. This arises even though agents share common priors, information,
and biases, providing a theory for the origins of disagreement. Our theory
helps explain why disagreement about substance and expert credibility often go hand-in-hand
and is hard to resolve in a wide-range of issues where agents share common
information, including economics, climate change, and medicine.
The latest paper is available here
https://www.dropbox.com/s/h261ckp0m2oo4c7/chenghsiaw_disagreement.pdf?dl=0