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Today's speaker: James Robins (Harvard Department of Epidemiology), "Target Trials: Emulating RCTs using Observational Longitudinal Data"
Abstract
Target trials are RCTs one would like to conduct but cannot for ethical, financial, and/or logistical reasons. As a consequence, we must emulate such trials from observational data. A novel aspect of target trial methodology is that, for purposes of data analysis, each subject in the observational study is ‘enrolled’ in all target trials for which the subject is eligible, instead of a single trial. I will compare the strengths and weakness of the target trial approach with alternative methods for estimation of causal effects from longitudinal data with time varying confounders: structural nested models, dynamic marginal structural models, and history adjusted marginal structural models. Finally, through empirical examples, I will examine the over-arching question: Are these methodologies sufficiently reliable for their substantive results to guide clinical practice.
The Applied Statistics Workshop (Gov 3009) meets all academic year, Wednesdays, 12pm-1:30pm, in CGIS K354. This workshop is a forum for advanced graduate students, faculty, and visiting scholars to present and discuss methodological or empirical work in progress in an interdisciplinary setting. The workshop features a tour of Harvard's statistical innovations and applications with weekly stops in different fields and disciplines and includes occasional presentations by invited speakers.
More information is available at the Gov 3009 website: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/applied.stats.workshop-gov3009