Date:
Location:
Speaker
Marco Mendoza Aviña, "Does Diversity Undermine Support for Redistribution" (with Marcel F. Roman)
Abstract
With rising income and wealth inequality in the U.S., demand for redistribution might be expected to increase. However, mass support for progressive fiscal and social policy remains stagnant. Concomitantly, the country is steadily diversifying along ethno-racial lines, with non-white Americans projected to make up a majority of the population by 2045. Influential theories in political economy and political behavior contend diversification may reduce support for redistribution, as individuals tend to be less likely to support government spending that does not primarily benefit their own ethnic or racial group. We test this expectation by pairing local demographic data with national surveys encompassing nearly a million Americans, including 2 panels of individuals interviewed multiple times between 2010 and 2019. We find consistently negligible effects of rising neighborhood diversity on individual preferences. We also show that precinct-level diversification fails to predict vote share for ballot propositions pertaining to redistributive policy between 2012 and 2020 in California. We conduct sensitivity analyses, rule out residential selection, and evaluate several sources of heterogeneity. These null results clash with established findings on intergroup conflict and public finance. We propose a conceptual replication of our findings using survey experiments and perceived measures of national and local demographic change.
The American Politics Research Workshop (Gov 3004) presents an opportunity for graduate students and Harvard faculty to present and receive feedback on their current research. The workshop highlights key theoretical and empirical findings from Harvard affiliates on topics related to American politics.
All interested Harvard affiliates are invited to attend.