Sun Young Park (APRW)

Speaker & Title

Sun Young Park, "The Sequential Rise of Political Animosity in Economically Declining and Prospering Places: Evidence from 3 Billion Geo-located Tweets"

Abstract

Political animosity has become a central feature of contemporary democratic politics. Existing narratives often interpret this as either a ‘bottom-up socioeconomic phenomenon’ focusing on voters’ economic discontent, or a more ‘top-down political phenomenon’ driven by partisan political conflict or populist rhetoric. I adjudicate between these views by proposing a place-based sequential theory: Economic discontent fueled political animosity in relatively declining places before the rise of populists, while the consequent rise of populists provoked political animosity particularly in prospering places. To test this theory, I apply deep learning models to 3 billion geo-located tweets, offering a novel measure of political animosity that is geographically fine-grained and spanning a decade (2013-2022) in the U.S., France, and Korea. In all three countries, declining places displayed higher animosity prior to salient populist campaigns. These places include not only areas with industrial decline, but also areas with high concentrations of ethnic minorities or long-distance commuters. In contrast, it was prosperous places that experienced the sharpest increases in animosity with the rise of populists, ultimately closing the gap with declining areas.

Note: If you plan to participate in APRW as a graduate student this year (either as a presenter or attendee), please enroll in the seminar on my.harvard.edu (GOV 3004A) — this gives us a sense of numbers and helps us maintain funding.