Date:
Location:
Today's Speaker
Eoin McGuirk (Tufts), “Development Mismatch: Evidence from Land-Use Conversions in Pastoral Africa" (w/Nathan Nunn)
Abstract
We study the impact of land use conversions on conflict in traditionally pastoral ethnic territories in Africa. Agricultural land use has expanded considerably across the continent in recent years. Much of this expansion has occurred in pastoral areas, where land management systems are often based on customary tenure arrangements that facilitate transhumance, the cyclical movement of grazing animals between pastures. Transhumance allows for an efficient use of resources in dryland areas, since the availability of plant biomass for grazing can vary in patterns that are difficult to predict. Agricultural development projects may undermine this practice by expanding crop cultivation into pastoral areas and thus constraining the area of land available for animal grazing. This process is thought to be a major cause of conflict between pastoral and agricultural ethnic groups. We test this hypothesis using geocoded data on government-led agricultural development projects across Africa in the 20 year period from 1995-2014. Using a variety of identification approaches, we find that implementing agricultural projects in traditionally pastoral areas leads to a three-fold increase in conflict. We find no effect of agricultural projects in traditionally agricultural areas, nor do we find any difference in the effect of non-agricultural projects between both areas. Our estimated effects depend on the distribution of political power at the time a project is planned: when pastoral groups share more power, projects are less likely to incite violence. Taken together, our results indicate that ‘development mismatch’ – i.e., imposing development projects that are culturally misaligned with local communities – can be costly.
Co-sponsored by FAS and IQSS, the Alberto Alesina Seminar on Political Economy supports research-related activities that integrate the study of economics and politics, whether by studying economic behavior in the political process or political behavior in the marketplace. In general, positive political economy is concerned with showing how observed differences among institutions affect political and economic outcomes in various social, economic, and political systems and how the institutions themselves change and develop in response to individual and collective beliefs, preferences, and strategies.
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